In extracts taken from an article published in The Times 1st September 2008, Siobham Kennedy reports:

Ministers are bracing themselves for a rise in violent crime and burglaries and a shift to far-right extremism as the effects of the economic downturn take their toll, a leaked Home Office report to the Prime Minister says. In a series of warnings, the Home Secretary, Jacqui Smith, says that Britain also faces a “significant increase” in alcohol and tobacco smuggling, hostility towards migrants and even a potential rise in the number of people joining terrorist groups.

Based on models from the last recession in 1991-92 Ms Smith tells Gordon Brown that violent crime is set to grow at a rate of 19% while theft and burglaries could rise by up to 7% this year and 2% in 2009. “Our modelling indicates that an economic downturn would place a significant upward pressure on acquisitive crime and therefore on overall crime figures,” Ms Smith says.

A Home Office spokesman said that the department did not comment normally on leaked documents but the report was a draft advice on which the Home Secretary had not yet signed off. It had not been sent to No 10.“It is, however, appropriate that the Home Office considers the effects the economic climate may have on crime and other policy areas. We are confident that we have the right systems in place to respond flexibly to changing economic needs, and are well positioned to face future challenges.